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卡迪夫大学新研究：AI 尚无法像人类教师一样可靠地批改作业_我的网站

A |      8 月 24 日消息，据外媒 Phys.org 今天（24 日）报道，卡迪夫大学和墨尔本大学的一项新研究发现，生成式人工智能（GenAI）目前还无法像人类教师一样可靠地评判学生的书面作业。研究人员使用 ChatGPT 的两个版本，对 50 篇生物科学专业本科生论文进行评分，以测试大模型评估学生作业的能力。

B |     Major housing industry groups voiced "profound concern" in a letter this week urging the Federal Reserve to stop raising interest rates.The rare public admonishment from top business advocates -- including the National Association of Realtors and the National Association of Home Builders -- underscores a dramatic slowdown in the housing market due in large part to rising interest rates.The letter arrives roughly three weeks before the Fed plans to make its latest rate-hike decision.Mortgage rates have reached their highest level in more than two decades and they have continued to rise. Data released on Thursday showed that mortgage rates increased for the fifth consecutive week, according to Freddie Mac."The speed and magnitude of these [mortgage] rate increases, and resulting dislocation in our industry, is painful and unprecedented," the letter from the housing groups said.Here's what to know about why real estate groups called on the Fed to stop raising rates:

What's happening in the housing market?

Sky-high mortgage rates have dramatically slowed the housing market, since homebuyers have balked at stiff borrowing costs and home sellers have opted to stay on mortgages that lock them into relatively low rates.Mortgage applications have fallen to their lowest level since 1996, the Mortgage Brokers Association said earlier this month.Sales of previously owned homes, meanwhile, have plummeted more than 15% compared to a year ago, the National Association of Realtors found in August.The slowdown has coincided with a sharp rise in costs for potential homebuyers.The average interest rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage has climbed to nearly 7.6%, Freddie Mac data shows.When the Fed initiated the rise of bond yields with its first rate hike of the current series in March 2022, the average 30-year fixed mortgage stood at just 4.45%.Each percentage point increase in a mortgage rate can add thousands or tens of thousands in additional costs each year, depending on the price of the house, according to Rocket Mortgage.

What role is the Federal Reserve playing in the housing market slowdown?

An aggressive series of interest rate hikes at the Federal Reserve since last year has pushed up the 10-year Treasury yield, which loosely tracks with long-term mortgage rates.The Fed has fought elevated inflation with borrowing cost increases as it tries to slash price hikes by slowing the economy and choking off demand.While inflation has fallen significantly from a peak of about 9% last summer, price increases remain more than a percentage point higher than the Fed's inflation target.Price increases held steady in September, fresh data on Thursday showed, suggesting that elevated inflation remains resistant to the interest rate hikes.The persistence of elevated inflation has prompted the Fed to espouse a policy of holding interest rates at high levels for a prolonged period, which in turn has increased the 10-year Treasury yield and put upward pressure on mortgage rates.Moreover, the Fed expects to raise rates one more time this year, according to projections released last month.Speaking at a press conference in Washington, D.C., last month, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the continued effect of interest rates on mortgages, noting that activity in the housing market "remains well below levels of a year ago, largely reflecting higher mortgage rates."

What do the housing industry groups want the Fed to do?

Housing industry advocates want the Fed to take swift actions that reassure investors and other market participants of an end to the policies cooling the industry.Most notably, the industry groups want the central bank to release a statement saying that it has abandoned consideration of additional rate hikes.In their letter to Fed officials, the housing groups cautioned that a further slowdown in real estate could help tip the U.S. economy into a recession, scuttling the central bank's effort to achieve a "soft landing.""We urge the Fed to take these simple steps to ensure that this sector does not precipitate the hard landing the Fed has tried so hard to avoid," the letter said.。

C | ChatGPT 需要按照 7 项标准批改这些论文，研究人员还采用了 4 种不同的提示方式，随后将大模型与人工评分的平均分和分数波动情况进行比较。图源：Pexels卡迪夫大学生物科学学院威廉 · 凯博士指出：“研究结果显示，模型给出的分数波动很大，无法准确预测人工评分。生成式 AI 与人类批改同一批论文时存在明显差异。只看论文总分，两者给出的结果相对接近；一旦具体到每项评分标准和每一篇论文，大模型与人工评分之间的差距就相当明显。”除一种情况外，AI 模型给出的平均分普遍高于人工评分。

D | 平均分方面，AI 模型与人工评分的最大差距达到 16.1 分；具体到单篇论文，最大差距达到 40 分。

E | 获悉，威廉 · 凯还发现，AI 往往会压低高分论文的成绩，又把低分作业的成绩抬高，最终使分数系统性地向中间集中。

F | 研究结果说明，至少现阶段，即使经过大量训练，AI 仍无法可靠地对主观性较强的书面作业给出与人类相当的分数。“我们测试的大模型目前并不适合取代教师，为学生预测作业成绩。”研究人员指出，高等教育领域确实很关注大模型能否利用模式识别能力，让学生作业评分更加客观，同时提高批改效率、减轻教职人员压力。

G | 但这项研究表明，目前并不适合这么做。此外，未经学生明确同意便把作业提交给 AI 工具，本身还涉及伦理问题；大模型也不能、也不应该被依赖来给学生的长篇书面作业评分。“随着大模型继续发展，未来模仿人类判断的能力可能会提高。但从这项研究来看，要让 AI 给出的分数与人工评分真正保持一致，恐怕并不容易。

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